2013 breaks MLB record for most extra-inning games

When the Blue Jays and Orioles went into the 10th inning Tuesday night, a new record for most extra-inning games in a single season was established. It was the 238th extra-inning game of 2013, besting the mark set in 2011 (the Diamondbacks and Padres later made it 239). No other season in MLB history featured more than 220 extra-inning contests. With five days left in the season, there's time for this season to build up a little breathing room, likely finishing up at something like 245 (I'll update this post once the final results are in). What follows is a look at some of the specifics of this year's extra innings, and how they compare to those of other seasons.

Seasons with the most extra-inning games*:


1) 2013: 239
2) 2011: 237
t3) 1986: 220
t3) 1991: 220
t3) 2007: 220
t3) 2010: 220
t7) 1996: 218
t7) 2004: 218
t9) 1977: 212
t9) 1982: 212

*The play index data from Baseball-Reference I used for this research dates to 1916, so all figures you see are from then on. Due to the shorter season and fewer teams that existed prior to then, it's unlikely there would be many changes to the data you see below, and certainly there wouldn't be any changes in the list above. This data also does not include any games that ended as ties (as was semi-common in baseball's early years). You can view the complete list I created with the play index here.


Season with the most 10-inning games: 2013 (115)

Season with the most 11-inning games: 2010 (69)

Season with the most 12-inning games: 1977, 1997, 2008 (36)

Season with the most 12-inning (or longer) games: 1992 (80)

Season with the most 13-inning games: 1992 (28)

Season with the most 14-inning games: 2011 (16)

Season with the most 15-inning games: 1963, 1975, 1976, 1980 (9)

Season with the most 15-inning (or longer) games: 1967 (20)

Season with the most 16-inning games: 1976 (7)

Season with the most 17-inning games: 1968, 1980, 1986, 1998 (4)

Season with the most 18-inning games: 2013 (4)

Season with the most 18-inning (or longer) games: 1967 (9)


2013 hasn't just set the record for most extra-inning games, it's also set a new record for most total extra innings (a 10-inning game being 1 extra inning, an 11-inning game being 2 extra innings, etc.)

Seasons with the highest number of total extra innings: 


1) 2013 (565)
2) 1980 (531)
3) 1976 (519)
4) 1982 (518)
5) 1992 (515
6) 2011 (504)
7) 1977 (491)
8) 1972 (481)
9) 1991 (477)
10) 1988 (468)

2013 is shattering that record, and will likely end up with 575-580 total extra innings by the time the season ends Sunday (or Monday).

If you divide the 565 total extra innings thus far by the 239 extra-inning games that have taken place, you get an average of 2.364 extra innings per extra-inning game in 2013.

Seasons with the highest average number of extra innings in extra-inning games: 


1) 1967 (2.698)
2) 1918 (2.593)
3) 1972 (2.586)
4) 1919 (2.573)
5) 1976 (2.569)
6) 1968 (2.563)
7) 1963 (2.562)
8) 1980 (2.541)
9) 1971 (2.472)
10) 1974 (2.453)

2013 ranks 26th on that list, with an above-average number of extra inning per extra-inning game, but not dramatically so.

There are 30 teams now and they each play a 162-game schedule. Until 1961 there were only 16 teams (and they played a shorter schedule too). It wasn't until 1998 that MLB reached it's current size, so it's to be expected that more recent seasons would have a higher number of extra-inning games. What if we look at the percentage of total games that are going extra innings, does 2013 still stand out?

Seasons in which the highest percentage of games went extra innings:


1) 1943 (13.37%)
2) 1957 (13.09%)
3) 1918 (11.73%)
4) 1942 (11.60%)
5) 1916 (11.57%)
6) 1960 (11.12%)
7) 1944 (11.05%)
8) 1965 (10.99%)
9) 1920 (10.99%)
10) 1932 (10.67%)

So far in 2013, 10.12% of all games have gone to extra innings, which ranks 17th out of the 98 seasons here. It's not a record rate, but it is the highest since 1991. The next-highest figure from the 2000s is all the way down at 34th on the list (2011, 9.76%) and no other year from the 2000s even places anywhere in the top half of the rankings.

By the time Sunday ends, we'll have gotten more innings of baseball than any season in history. I'd say that makes 2013 a great year.

Vladimir Guerrero: a Hall of Fame career?

Vladimir Guerrero was the #1 overall pick in the first fantasy baseball league I ever played in, and he helped me win the title that year. I already liked him, but that cinched his place in my heart. Guerrero hasn't played in the Major Leagues since 2011, but it wasn't until this month that he accepted that he wouldn't make it back, and made his retirement official. Vlad was famous for having elite power and speed during his prime, as well as an absolute cannon for an arm, and for swinging at and connecting with any and all kinds of pitches sometimes even ones that bounced in the dirt. When his name arrives on Hall of Fame ballots in a few years, he'll be an interesting candidate, sure to draw solid support. Will he draw enough to be inducted? We'll have to wait and find out. In the meantime, should he be inducted?

First, a look at Guerrero's career numbers:

GPARH2B3BHRRBISBBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
2147905913282590477464491496181.318.379.553.931140

The last 20 years have sort of desensitized many of us to great offensive numbers, which might lead you to overlook just how strong many of those career totals are. The home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS+ are all among the top 40 in baseball history, and the hits, doubles, RBIs, and batting average are all in the top 100.

This has little to do with his Hall of Fame case, but an interesting tidbit: Guerrero is one of just three players in history with 1000 hits and 200 home runs in each league (Frank Robinson and Fred McGriff are the others). If you add 50 stolen bases or a .300 batting average to the qualifications, Vlad is the only player left. He played in Four All-Star Games with the NL, and then four with the AL.

In the first half of his career, he was the last of the great Montreal Expos, and arguably the most-exciting player in baseball. In 1997, Guerrero was part of a National League rookie class that also included Scott Rolen and Andrew Jones (two other interesting HOF cases). In 1998, he set a franchise record with 38 home runs. He broke that record the next year but hitting 42, and broke it again the year after that, hitting 44. By the end of 2002, he'd become the franchise leader for career home runs, with 234, despite being just 28 years old. In 2001, he also began stealing bases at a high clip, nabbing 37 that year, and 40 in 2002 (when he missed joining the exclusive '40/40' club by one home run). He was also one of the better defensive right fielders in baseball, with perhaps the strongest arm in the game:



At the end of 2003, Guerrero became a free agent, and because Montreal wasn't in the business of handing out the kind of contract Vlad merited, he left the team, landing in Anaheim after the Angels inked him to a 6-year, $82 million deal. All he did in his first season in the American League was win the MVP Award, leading the league in total bases and runs scored. He averaged 33 home runs in his first four seasons with the Angels, finishing in the top 10 of the MVP vote every year.

At 2007's end, Guerrero had put up 10 consecutive seasons with at least a .300 batting average, .500 slugging percentage, and a 138 OPS+. For those years he was among the top ten in games, hits, doubles, home runs, runs scored, RBIs, total bases, batting average, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+ for those years. He received MVP votes in every one of those seasons.

Guerrero's production dropped a bit in 2008, then a bit more in 2009, as he was slowed by injuries and limited to 100 games, only the second time since his rookie season that he appeared in fewer than 140. He also transitioned to primarily playing DH, not right field. He was still capable of doing things like this though:


In 2010 Guerrero joined the Texas Rangers. He had a strong season at the plate and reached the only World Series of his career, but looked ancient in the outfield. In 2011 he moved to the Baltimore Orioles, where he put up the worst numbers of his career and didn't play a single inning in the field. He played a few games in the Blue Jays' minor league system in 2012, but didn't appear in the Majors, and has spent 2012 out of baseball.

Guerrero has 59.7 bWAR (that's Baseball-Reference's version), and 56.6 fWAR (the FanGraphs edition). Those totals put him on the fringe of Hall of Fame merit. There 23 Hall of Famers probably best considered as right fielders. Their average WAR total (B-R version) is 70.9, the median is 64.0, which means Guerrero would be considered below average for HOF right fielders. On the other hand, his total is higher than that of 11 right fielders already inducted. Plus, of course there are going to be players in the Hall who are below the Hall's average level of play.

More important (to me anyway), is that the major difference between Vlad's total and that of many players who land 10-12 WAR above him is that he didn't have much value outside his prime. Should the determining factor in whether or not a player is inducted be how many years he hung around as a league average player after his peak ended? I'd argue not.

Jay Jaffe has developed a system to determine a player's Hall of Fame worthiness, known as JAWS. It looks at not only a player's career WAR, but also their peak (defined by Jaffe as a player's 7 best seasons). Vald's peak scores at 41.2, right in line with the right field average of 42.0 and median of 39.6. Jaffe combines career with peak (basically giving a player double credit for their 7 best seasons) to determine a player's JAWS score. Guerrero's JAWS is 50.6, a solid step beneath the average for right fielders, of 56.4,  but a nearly perfect match to the median, which is 50.9.

Guerrero put up 52.6 bWAR from 1998 to 2007. His OPS+ over those years was 151. That's  ten years of sustained excellence, a run bettered by only eleven right fielders in history. Between the strength of that decade-long peak and all kinds of bonus points for his arm and the flair with which he played, I believe Vladimir Guerrero belongs in the Hall of Fame.