Best MLB Rookie of the Year Winners

In 2012 Mike Trout wasn't just the best player in baseball, he was probably the best 20-year-old position player ever. Meanwhile, Bryce Harper, while not quite as productive, was only 19 years old, and arguably the greatest teenage position player in history. Never before had two players been so good, while so young, in the same season. Not surprisingly, each player was named the Rookie of the Year (ROY) for their respective league. Given their youth and talent, it's easy to imagine them as star players for years and years to come. If they do have that kind of success, where might they rank among all Rookie of the Year winners? Where might they rank as a duo, compared to all the other winning pairs?

The Rookie of the Year Award has been around since 1947, when it was created and given to Jackie Robinson. There was only one winner that year, and again in 1948. In 1949 a separate winner was named for each league, which is how it's worked ever since.

Rookie of the Year winning seasons, ranked by WAR*

t10) Nomar Garciaparra (AL, 1997) - 6.6
t10) Albert Pujols (NL, 2001) - 6.6
t8) John Montefusco (NL, 1975) - 6.8
t8) Tony Oliva (AL, 1964) - 6.8
7) Mika Piazza (NL, 1993) - 7.0
t5) Carlton Fisk (AL, 1972) - 7.3
t5) Fred Lynn (AL, 1975) - 7.3
4) Ichiro Suzuki (AL, 2001) - 7.7
3) Dick Allen (AL, 1964) - 8.8
2) Mark Fidrych (AL, 1976) - 9.6
1) Mike Trout (AL, 2012) - 10.9

*All figures in this post use Baseball-Reference's WAR calculations, sometimes called bWAR, and are updated through the 2012 season.

Rookie of the Year winners, ranked by career WAR:

10) Lou Whitaker (AL, 1978) - 74.8

9) Johnny Bench (NL, 1968) - 75.2

8) Pete Rose (NL, 1963) - 79.4

7) Jeff Bagwell (NL, 1991) - 79.5

6) Rod Carew (AL, 1967) -81.2

5) Albert Pujols (NL, 2001) - 91.5

4) Cal Ripken (AL, 1982) - 95.6

3) Tom Seaver (NL, 1967) - 106.3

2) Frank Robinson (NL, 1956) - 107.1

1) Willie Mays (NL, 1951) - 156.1

It would be foolish to predict that Trout or Harper will climb close to the top of that list. It's not that there's no chance of it happening, but the chances of it are so slim, even for players as talented as these two. The combination of Trout and Harper in the same year though, two winners so young and two winners so good, is particularly impressive. "So young" and "so good" might seem obvious for Rookie of the Year winners, but the typical winner may not be quite as young or as good as you think.

The median age among the 132 Rookie of the Year winners is 23. Young, but not 19 or 20. Harper was only the second 19-year-old to win the award (Doc Gooden being the other), while Trout was just the 8th 20-year old. Never before had both Rookie of the Year winners been 20 or younger. The only previous pair both 21 or younger were 1978's winners, Bob Horner (20) and Lou Whitaker (21). The median bWAR among all 132 ROY winning seasons is 3.35. That's a very good season, but far from Harper's 5.2 and a different realm entirely from Trout's 10.9.

Trout and Harper were just the eighth ROY pair ever to both collect 5+ WAR. That distinction, along with Trout's other-worldly season, makes their combined performance a candidate for the strongest of any pair. Dick Allen (8.8) and Tony Oliva (6.8) would probably get my vote, but it's close. What first started me researching previous Rookie of the Year winners was wondering how they might stack up with the other pairs of winners in the award's history, but not for their winning season, I'm talking about their career. Obviously it's too early to know what will happen, but the quality of their winning seasons paired with their being the youngest pair ever is intriguing.

The most obvious way to combine each season's two winners would be just to add their WAR together. Doing that though, any pair with one great winner would score very well. I'm trying to identify pairs where both players were strong. In 1982 the winners were Cal Ripken and Steve Sax, they combined for 120.9 WAR, sixth highest of any pair, but while Sax was a solid player (25.3 WAR), Ripken did the vast majority of the lifting (95.6 WAR). Willie Mays and I have combined for 156.1 WAR, but who cares?

Instead of adding them together, I'm going to find the harmonic mean of each pair's career WAR totals:

H = (2 * X * Y) / (X + Y)

(H = harmonic mean, X = NL winner's career WAR, and Y = AL winner's career WAR)

The harmonic mean weighs lower figures more heavily. 50 + 50 (pair A) and 90 + 10 (pair B) both = 100, but the harmonic mean of pair A would be much higher than that of pair B. This method will make it more important that both winners have had a strong career in order for the pairs score to be especially high, one player cannot do all the lifting.

Rookie of the Year winning pairs, ranked by harmonic mean of career WAR:

10) 1993, Mike Piazza (NL, 59.2) and Tim Salmon (AL, 40.6) - 48.17
9) 1964, Dick Allen (NL, 58.7) and Tony Oliva (AL, 43.1) - 49.70
8) 1972, Carlton Fisk (AL, 68.3) and Jon Matlack (NL, 39.1) - 49.73
7) 1997, Scott Rolen (NL, 70.0) and Nomar Garciaparra (AL, 44.2) - 54.19
6) 1991, Jeff Bagwell (NL, 79.5) and Chuck Knoblauch (AL, 44.5) - 57.06
5) 1951, Willie Mays (NL, 156.1) and Gil McDougald (AL, 40.6) - 64.44
4) 1977, Eddie Murray (AL, 68.2) and Andre Dawson (NL, 64.4) - 66.25
3) 2001, Albert Pujols (NL, 91.5) and Ichiro Suzuki (AL, 57.0) - 70.24
2) 1956, Frank Robinson (NL, 107.1) and Luis Aparicio (AL, 55.7) - 73.29
1) 1967, Tom Seaver (NL, 106.3) and Rod Carew (AL, 81.2) - 92.07

Pujols and Suzuki stand a pretty good chance of moving into the #2 spot before their careers are over (11 more WAR by Pujols or 4 more by Suzuki would do the trick. Ichiro looks about finished, but Albert ought to be able to pull that in), but they aren't going to get to #1. Among other active pairs, 2007's Ryan Braun and Dustin Pedroia are already at 32.53, so another 15 WAR apiece would put them on the list, while 2006's Justin Verlander and Hanley Ramirez are just a bit behind them at 31.15.

There you have it, the best Rookie of the Year winning pairs in baseball history.

Greatest Opening Day Performances

Last Monday, Clayton Kershaw had one heck of an Opening Day. He pitched a complete game shutout and hit an 8th inning home run, breaking a 0-0 tie and providing the only run of he needed. Kershaw recorded 7 strikeouts against just 4 hits and 0 walks. Kershaw's performance rates as one of the greatest Opening Days ever, up there with Walter Johnson's 15 shutout innings in 1926, Bob Feller's no hitter in 1940, or Camilo Pascual's record 15 strikeouts in 1960, or anything in more recent history. Speaking of recent history, today I'm choosing the very best Opening Day start for each season of the 2000s.

Here are my choices for the best from each Opening Day (if you click on a name, it'll take you to the box score for that game):

2013: Clayton Kershaw - DODGERS vs. Giants, 9 innings, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts, 4 hits, 0 walks

Kershaw threw a shutout against the defending World Series champions, needing just 94 pitches, making this the first Maddux of 2013 and only the second Opening Day Maddux of the pitch count era*. He also belted a home run, joining Bob Lemon (Indians, 1953) as the only players to homer and pitch a shutout in an Opening Day game.

*Complete pitch count data runs back only to 1988, so I can't know if there were others before then.

2012: Justin Verlander - TIGERS vs. Red Sox, 8 innings, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts, 2 hits, 1 walk

Verlander, the reigning AL MVP, picked up where he left off at the end of 2011, throwing 8 shutout innings against a good lineup. It's surprising he wasn't sent out for the 9th inning, as 105 pitches isn't that many by Verlander's standards.

2011: Jeremy Guthrie - ROYALS @ Rays, 8 innings, 0 runs, 6 strikeouts, 3 hits, 1 walk

The first two names on this list are probably the two best pitchers in baseball. Guthrie is probably not the next name on that list. He was fantastic on this day though. He was at just 94 pitches through 8 innings, but he didn't get the chance to finish it off himself.

2010: Tim Lincecum - GIANTS@ Astros, 7 innings, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts, 4 hits, 0 walks

Lincecum had won the previous two NL Cy Young winners and on this day he looked ready to win a third. The four hits were all singles and only two of his 21 outs were recorded by outfielders. Lincecum also put down two successful sacrifice bunts.

2009: Derek Lowe - BRAVES @ Phillies, 8 innings, 0 runs, 4 strikeouts, 2 hits, 0 walks

The Phillies went on to lead the National League in runs scored that year. This was a potent lineup and Lowe did better against them this day than anyone else all season. Having thrown just 98 pitches, Lowe could have gone back out for the 9th, but it wasn't to be.

2008: Carlos Zambrano - CUBS vs. Brewers, 6.2 innings, 0 runs, 5 strikeouts, 3 hits, 1 walk

I'm not sure why he was pulled, the bases were empty and he'd only thrown 85 pitches. In any event, this is the only entry on this list in which the pitcher didn't last at least seven innings. The best of a (relatively) poor crop of Opening Day performances.

2007: Felix Hernandez - MARINERS vs. Athletics, 8 innings, 0 runs, 12 strikeouts, 3 hits, 2 walks

Those twelve strikeouts are the most by any Opening Day starter in the 2000s (tied with Pedro Martinez in 2005). Felix was at 111 pitches through eight innings though (a number topped by just three Opening Day starters since then), so a complete game was not to be.

2006: Roy Oswalt - ASTROS vs. Marlins, 8 innings, 0 runs, 8 strikeouts, 5 hits, 1 walk

Oswalt was at just 91 pitches, why was he pulled?! Lousy closers, robbing starting pitchers of potential shutouts and the glory that comes with them. Oswalt had one of his best seasons in 2006, but never ended up getting a shutout.

2005: Mark Buehrle - WHITE SOX vs. Indians, 8 innings, 0 runs, 5 strikeouts, 2 hits, 1 walk

Buehrle allowed just three base runners and two of them were then erased by double plays, as Buehrle was getting ground balls all day. 103 pitches through eight innings... I know I sound like a broken record, but let a man finish what he's started!

2004: CC Sabathia - INDIANS @ Twins, 7 innings, 0 runs, 9 strikeouts, 2 hits, 4 walks

Sabathia ran his pitch count up with those strikeouts and walks and left after 7 innings. The Cleveland bullpen promptly blew the 4-0 lead and lost the game in extra innings, making Sabathia the only player on this list whose team didn't win that day.

2003: Hideo Nomo - DODGERS @ Diamondbacks, 9 innings, 0 runs, 7 strikeouts, 4 hits, 1 walk

This was the last Opening Day shutout before Kershaw's gem last week. Arizona's first hit was wiped out when the batter tried vainly to reach 3rd and was thrown out. Their second hit was wiped out on a failed stolen base attempt.

2002: Bartolo Colon - INDIANS @ Angels, 9 innings, 0 runs, 5 strikeouts, 5 hits, 2 walks

Colon needed just 98 pitches to blank the team that went on to win the World Series that year, making this the first Opening Day Maddux (and only one until Kershaw). I assume the two of them will get matching smoking jackets to commemorate their membership in that club.

2001: Mike Hampton - ROCKIES vs. Cardinals, 8.1 innings, 0 runs, 5 strikeouts, 5 hits, 3 walks

Hampton walked the last two batters he faced, losing the chance to finish the game. This was Hampton's first start for Colorado after signing (at the time) the biggest contract in baseball history. Who could know he'd go this deep into a game without allowing any runs just twice more in his career?

2000: Pedro Martinez - RED SOX @ Mariners, 7 innings, 0 runs, 11 strikeouts, 2 hits, 2 walks

If ever 7 shutout innings with 11 strikeouts could feel routine, it was this time, place, and pitcher. There's a reasonable argument that Pedro at this stage of his career was the best pitcher in history. If we're going only by a pitcher's prime, he's certainly got my vote.

If I were ranking the bunch, Kershaw would come out on top. His shutout is one of just four on Opening Day since 2000 (Nomo, Colon, and Randy Johnson, who pitched one in 2002, same year as Colon) and he allowed fewer base runners than any of those three other pitchers. I don't know when the last pitcher to throw a better Opening Day game was, but it's been a while.