From Seattle to New York to Cooperstown?

Late this afternoon, it was announced that the Seattle Mariners have traded away the face of their franchise to the New York Yankees for what amounts to filler; basically, they gave him away. According to Ichiro's statement during the press conference that ended a few minutes ago, after determining that Seattle was no longer a good fit for him, he quietly requested to be traded a few weeks ago.The Mariner's would have been in a tough position this off-season; Ichiro will be a free agent, there would have been strong sentiment to re-sign one of the greatest players in franchise history, but his production the during the last year and a half does not really warrant much of a commitment from any team. That scenario is now avoided, Seattle's front office is spared that difficult decision his departure can be spun as allowing him to play for a contender during the twilight of his career.

The Mariners would not have given him away if he were playing better, and for that reason it is hard to expect him to be much more than a role player in New York. I, for one, would not be surprised to see him do pretty well there. Not that he'll turn back into the great player he used to be, but I think the change of scenery might lead to improved production in whatever role he finds in the Bronx. We'll see. In any event, the trade makes me want to take a moment to reflect on what Ichiro has accomplished in his American career, since coming over from Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball in 2001.

In that first season, Ichiro broke onto the American baseball scene in a huge way, winning the American League's batting title with a .350 average, leading the league in hits and stolen bases, and winning both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards. He was a phenomenon, drawing large crowds in every new city (to say nothing of the large Japanese media contingent that followed him everywhere), easily being voted into the All-Star Game, and leading Seattle to the best record in baseball.

During his first decade here, Ichiro was among the very best players in baseball. He easily led the Major Leagues in hits during those years (in fact, no player has ever had as many hits over a 10-year period as Ichiro's 2,244 between 2001-2010), was tied with Albert Pujols for the best batting average, at .331, and ranked 3rd, behind only Pujols and Alex Rodriguez in bWAR, with a total of 52.7. He was an All-Star and won a Gold Glove in every one of those seasons. Even including his disappointing 2011 and 2012, Ichiro has a career batting average of .322, which ranks 7th in all of baseball over the last fifty years. He is the Mariners all-time leader in hits, triples, and stolen bases, and is among the top 3 in doubles, runs scored, and total bases.

Ichiro's will be an interesting Hall of Fame case, with the arguments against him being 1) career totals in the counting stats that are not staggering, and 2) he has never shown much power as a hitter. To the former, I would point out that he was 27 years old before he came stateside; if you include his Japanese numbers, he has over 3,800 total hits. Even if you only give him "half-credit" for the hits in Japan, he's at nearly 3,200. Just looking at a player's production from the age of 27 on, Ichiro ranks 7th all-time in hits and in batting average. His totals in other categories also rise if you include his Japanese career, of course. To the latter issue, I submit that while his skill set is fairly unique for a right fielder, what he didn't give you in power, he more than made up for with his speed and glove. There is a good case to be made that he is the best baserunner of any right fielder in history and he is also among the very best defensive players ever at the position.

With the Yankees sporting the best record in baseball, Ichiro will certainly get his first chance to play in the postseason since his first year in Seattle. One or two big plays in October can go a long way, so perhaps his legacy is not yet entirely written. But even if he continues to stumble, Ichiro has certainly been the finest American League right fielder during my lifetime, and with a little credit for his play in Japan, I think it's fair to rate him among the 10-15 best players at the position ever. In my view, that's enough to merit induction in the Hall of Fame.



An Inner Circle for the Hall of Fame

Graham Womack, an internet friend of mine, is a baseball historian and runs a great blog. In June he created a ballot listing every player enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame and invited anyone who wanted to vote for the 50 players they believe were the very best of the bunch and belonged in an "Inner Circle" of the Hall of Fame. I enjoyed choosing my list of 50 players and eagerly anticipated seeing the final results.

The day balloting closed, a few weeks later, I received a message from Graham, inviting me to contribute to the project by writing 200 words or so about one of the "inductees," Negro League legend Josh Gibson. Graham's previous collaborative project included many writers I greatly admire and I was thrilled to have the opportunity to be a part of this effort.

Yesterday afternoon Graham posted the results, with 50 brief essays from dozens of wonderful writers, men and women with far more impressive credentials than I can claim. It is a privilege and an honor to be a part of the project, and to have my name listed along with Graham, Jason Wojciechowski (another internet pal of mine), Rob Neyer (who could be considered the godfather of baseball blogging and whose work I've been reading since 1997), as well as writers from Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, ESPN.com, Sports Illustrated, Rolling Stone, and may other great outlets.

I hope you will take the time to click on the link and to look through the players who were chosen and read some of what was said about them (my entry can be found by scrolling down to #34). Please pass this link along to any other baseball fans you know who might enjoy it:

An Inner Circle for the Hall of Fame


Players of the First-Half: National League

With what feels like a never-ending wait for baseball to resume after the All-Star break, I thought I'd make my picks for the best position players in each league so far. I believe in separating a player's performance from that of his team, I don't think we should hold mediocre teammates against great players, which means not only do I largely ignore the standings when making my choices, I also try to avoid statistics that are largely dependent on teammates, such as RBI. I like more modern statistics like WAR and WARP, but also don't believe any one number can perfectly rate a player, it's best to cast a wide net and then sort through what you find. Here are my National League selections
(American League choices can be found here):

1) Andrew McCutchen (Pirates) - 4.4 bWAR, 4.5 fWAR, 4.4 WARP, .362/.414/.625, 185 OPS+
You're splitting hairs between these top three guys, in my opinion, and I choose to side with McCutchen, because his defensive metrics are down substantially from his previous levels, and I'm somewhat suspicious of short-term defensive measurements. His OPS+ would be the highest by a Pirate since Barry Bonds' last year in Pittsburgh and his .362 average would be the highest in franchise history since Paul Waner in 1936.

2) Joey Votto (Reds) - 4.5 bWAR, 5.0 fWAR, 4.1 WARP, .348/.471/.617, 186 OPS+
He's become probably the best hitter in baseball over the last three years, arguably the best player, period. His .471 OBP would rate as the 9th highest figure in modern National League history (from 1901 on) and only Barry Bonds has topped it since 1935. His 187 OPS+ has been bested by only Bonds, Albert Pujols, and Jim Thome over the last ten years. He's got a strong chance of winning his second MVP.

3) David Wright (Mets) - 4.7 bWAR, 4.9 fWAR, 4.6 WARP, .351/.441/.563, 177 OPS+
When Wright's batting average dropped to .254 last year and his OPS to 771, many wondered if he was finished as a great player. He's responded by putting up the best AVG, OBP, and SLG of his career, and there are signs his defense at 3B has improved too (though again, I suggest taking mid-season defensive numbers with a grain of salt). His 177 OPS+ would be the best by an N.L. 3B since Mike Schmidt in 1981.

4) Carlos Ruiz (Phillies) - 4.0 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR, 3.8 WARP, .350/.412/.584, 166 OPS+
Ruiz has been a very solid player the last few years, but this season he's found power that was untapped before now. His previous career high in home runs was 9, but he's already hit 13, and he's on pace for 40 doubles, despite never having hit even 30 before. His offensive production this season would put him up there with Mike Piazza, Joe Mauer, and Johnny Bench among the best numbers by a catcher ever.

5) Ryan Braun (Brewers) - 3.6 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR, 3.6 WARP, .306/.391/.599, 159 OPS+
Braun has been one of the three or four best players in baseball over the last few seasons, and in 2012 he's been hitting at an almost identical clip to his MVP winning numbers from last year, but with even more power than ever before. He leads the league with 24 home runs, putting him on pace for 45, which would easily eclipse his career high of 37.



Players of the First-Half: American League

With what feels like a never-ending wait for baseball to resume after the All-Star break, I thought I'd make my picks for the best position players in each league so far. I believe in separating a player's performance from that of his team, I don't think we should hold mediocre teammates against great players, which means not only do I largely ignore the standings when making my choices, I also try to avoid statistics that are largely dependent on teammates, such as RBI. I like more modern statistics like WAR and WARP, but also don't believe any one number can perfectly rate a player, it's best to cast a wide net and then sort through what you find. Here are my American League selections
(National League choices can be found here):

1) Mike Trout (Angels) - 4.6 bWAR, 4.8 fWAR, 4.3 WARP, .341/.397/.562, 168 OPS+
Trout didn't debut with the Angels this season til April 28th, as they felt he might need more seasoning. Since his call up, he's been the best player in baseball. Not bad for a 20-year-old. He leads the league in stolen bases, with 26, and looks to become the first player to win the batting title and stolen base crown since Ichiro's incredible 2001 debut. He also made the catch of the year, so there's that.

2) Robinson Cano (Yankees) - 4.2 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR, 3.3 WARP, .313/.374/.578, 151 OPS+
Cano has slowly but surely become the Yankees best player, and he might be having the best season by any Yankee in the last five years. He leads the A.L. in extra-base hits and totals bases has ended (for now at least) the debate between he and Dustin Pedroia for best 2B in baseball.

3) Josh Hamilton (Rangers) - 3.2 bWAR, 3.8 fWAR, 3.3 WARP, .308/.380/.635, 161 OPS+
Hamilton's incredible production during early May somewhat masks the fact that he's been only mildly above an average hitter at his position for the two months since then (.243/.328/.469). Still, he's entirely capable of another tremendous stretch, and his overall numbers are strong.

4) Austin Jackson (Tigers) - 3.5 bWAR, 4.0 fWAR, 3.3 WARP, .332/.408/.545, 158 OPS+
At 25 years old, Jackson looks to be entering his prime now, as he's cut down on his strikeouts while upping his walk rate and hitting for more power than ever before, all while playing a strong CF. If Jackson hadn't missed 21 games with an abdominal injury, he might sit atop this list.

5) Miguel Cabrera (Tigers) - 3.1 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR, 2.6 WARP, .324/.382/.557, 152 OPS+
Many expected Cabrera's move across the diamond to play 3B after four years at 1B to be a disaster, but he's managed to do a pretty decent job, fighting the position to something of a draw anyway. And of course he continues to be one of the best hitters in baseball.